When a Flag is Not a Flag: Anatomy of a trading decision

On 4/17/12 GDX produced what appeared to be a flag hanging on a flag pole and I did not buy. Here is an account of the thought process that went into rejecting the flag as false.
Here is the chart which by mid afternoon had me getting ready for a buy:

This is the full day chart and it sure looks like a flag, but there are multiple reasons to reject it.

Reason #1:
The federal reserve meets next Wednesday. If I buy, I'm saying that I believe the low is in. Over the past three years, there have been several times that a major low has occurred near or on the day of a federal reserve meeting. Almost all of those lows occurred during a period starting five days before the meeting until one day after the meeting. There is one outlier that occurred nine days before the meeting. The most recent low in GDX was on 4/10/12, eleven days before the meeting. The most recent low in HUI was on 4/4/12, fourteen days before the meeting. Statistically, there should be another low coming. This would not stop me from buying if it were the only negative, but it added to the list of other negatives.

Same chart new lines:

Reason #2:
A broken flag. This flag is drawn with a line between the two highs that straddle the first low, and a parallel line from that first low. This clearly shows that prices broke below the bottom line, went back up to test it, fell again, and remained lower. This is a warning sign, but not a clear indication of danger. If GDX had done exactly as above, but was resting on a clear support, I would have bought, especially with the rally in the last couple of minutes.

A chart full of problems:

Reason #3:
We are still just below a very major resistance at 48.05, marked by the black line above. This is not only the resistance built up a couple weeks ago, but it is also very close to the same resistance line of the broken 18 month long megaphone pattern shown in earlier posts. However, this alone would not keep me out if the flag was good.

Reason #4:
The flag fell through support at the same time that the flag broke down. This support is marked by the red line with two arrows showing he points where the support was building. (Marked as support and resistance)
This is enough to abort the buy. A good flag should rest on support.

Reason #5:
There is a broken down bearish flag on the chart. (Marked in blue) Normally, this flag would be invalid because the top line starts before the low, but HUI has a different low which is before the line and HUI has to confirm the trades. On the morning of our flag, GDX (and HUI) broke back into the bottom of the bearish flag. (Marked as break out) This is bullish, and alerted me to the possibility of a flag buy. A couple of hours later, GDX broke down again, which is bearish. This was also enough, on its own, to stop the buy.

I watched right up until the end of the day, because if GDX would have flown higher in the last half hour to close above the blue channel line, I would have bought. This would have closed it above the red support and it would have "fixed" the flag breakdown.