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Monday, April 2, 2012

Good news for Goldbugs

GDX and HUI surged up above the bottom of the megaphone pattern today. This puts control back in the bull camp for now. GDX and all gold stocks are very over-sold after a month of heading down, so I'm hoping for a nice bounce here, or better yet, a nice new uptrend. Here is the GDX chart for the past 14 days:


After a very brief and very small drop this morning GDX surged up through the upper red support line (which was resistance until today) and went all the way to the upper channel line before consolidating for the rest of the day. HUI did the same, but actually reached the blue resistance line before falling back and closing below both the channel line and the resistance line. GDX has not tested either of the red support lines yet and either of them would make sense from here. If GDX goes up to the blue resistance line in the morning, and then falls, the upper red line may contain any drop creating a bullish flag. A fall all of the way to the lower line and then a turn up would also be a bullish flag, just not as bullish.
A consolidation right were it is tomorrow with a rise and a close over the blue resistance would be immediately bullish.
A five or six day flag will often form in situations similar to this. It could form below the channel line, likely using the bottom support to hold it up, or it could jump out of the channel and form above the channel line, but possibly dipping down to the upper support line by the end of the flag formation.
As noted on Friday, the MACD crossed the zero line today, lending some technical support to both GDX and HUI.
Happy trading.

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