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Monday, March 5, 2012

GDX update 4 - Large flag forming

Gdx has taken quite a hit today, but it is after such big runs down that the best opportunities can occur.
I am now watching the possibility of a large, one month long, flag forming. Here is the chart so far today:

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
GDX - 4 month daily chart 3-5-12

Look at the very slight downward slope of the top blue line. That is the top of the flag. If GDX goes down to 52.66 and turns there it will form a perfect flag in more ways than one. A bottom of 52.66 would be a .6055 retrace of the move up from the bottom of 49.22 on December 29. This is very close to the ideal Fibonacci number of .618 discovered by the famous 11th century mathematician, Leonardo of Pisa. This number is found in the design of many natural elements and in many human endevours, including the stock market.
Assuming that the move to 57.94 was a first wave, a flag of this magnitude would give us a third wave target of 66.77 which is just two cents below the all time high.
There is also the bearish possibility that it has formed a double top. In that case, a couple of closes below 52.66 could send GDX dropping to a target of 47.41, a new yearly low.
I will be monitoring it closely.
Happy trading.

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