GDX still hanging by a thread

I haven't written in a couple days because I have been concentrating on my GDX charts. I was ready to buy on both Tuesday and Wednesday, but the charts did not cooperate. Yesterday (Wednesday) I believed we would get a bullish flag above support for most of the day and was ready to jump in until the flag on GDX and support on HUI were breached in the final 15 minutes of trading. It looks poised to drop this morning, just as those breaches yesterday foretold. This does not mean it can't turn around from here, it only means that it has not turned yet.
I've mentioned before that chart patterns repeat again and again, making technical analysis possible. However, they never repeat exactly, it is more like they rhyme. Take a look at these two charts. The first one is from the break down in July of 2008 and the second one is today.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com


GDX break down 2008


Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com


GDX possible break down 2012


Notice how similar the charts are, especially within the ovals. Both are making nearly the same pattern right at the support of an old low. These patterns were preceded by the break down of a bearish flag in both cases. A lot of large orders were filled yesterday and also on Tuesday at the close. It appears that people are making their bets either short or long. We should know in a day or two. It fell quickly from here in 2008.

Something else to note is the bearish shooting star candle on QQQ yesterday. In 2008 the gold stocks led the rest of the market down and turned up again before the rest of the market. I'm more bullish on the market as a whole right now than I was in 2008, so this may not happen here.