Breakout or breakdown

GDX is fast approaching a point where it will either break up or break down hard. This is because gold is at the cusp of completing an important pattern. Here is the chart for GLD:

GLD (and gold) has nearly completed a symmetrical triangle. According to Elliott Wave Theory, the triangle should consist of five waves. The blue lines show that it has completed five waves. This should mean a break downward at any moment. This does not mean it will break down, but a break is likely soon, either up or down, and a fast move should follow. Since this is a triangle, and a triangle is often the last consolidation in an up or down move, it should turn up fairly quickly after a breakdown scares everyone. This fits in perfectly with last week's post showing a possible 5th wave due in GDX.
Here is GDX:

As of Friday, GDX closed just below resistance as shown by the blue line. If GDX breaks above this line it is a buy, but you can see by the blue arrows that this type of buy has failed twice in the last five months. A failure is likely again if the gold triangle breaks down. If gold breaks up this line would be a good buy, so buying with a stop below the blue line is a good idea.